Data Experiments — The Copernican Project

Experiment 2

NASA Twins Study — Reframed

Scott Kelly • 340 days on ISS • Multi-omics • Science 2019

The most famous space biology experiment ever conducted: identical twins Scott and Mark Kelly, one in orbit for 340 days, the other on the ground in Houston. The original study documented telomere elongation, gene expression shifts, immune disruption, and epigenetic changes — but analyzed them as "before/during/after" snapshots.

Our reanalysis: Using earthframe, we computed Mark's ground-truth strain spectrum at Houston (29.56°N). The dominant period is 12.41 hours (semi-diurnal tidal) — and Scott lost 680 of these cycles during his year in orbit.

Strain Cycles Lost (340 days)

Semi-diurnal (12h)	~680
Diurnal (24h)	~340
Lunar (29.5d)	~12
Seasonal (~183d)	~2

Key Predictions

Fastest disruption: Circadian + immune genes (12h/24h coupled) ✓
Slowest disruption: Telomere dynamics (monthly/seasonal) ✓
Recovery order: High-freq systems normalize first
The 91.3% rule: Unreturned 8.7% of genes are low-frequency coupled

Houston 24h dynamics — 24-hour acceleration, jerk, and snap profiles at Houston — Mark Kelly's reference frame

Strain spectrum — FFT strain spectrum showing dominant 12.41h semi-diurnal tidal period

Frequency coupling map — Predicted coupling between molecular disruptions and strain periodicities

Cycles lost — Number of strain cycles removed by 340 days on ISS

Experiment 3

Inspiration4 — Frequency-Dependent Disruption

SpaceX Civilian Crew • 3 days in orbit • SOMA Atlas / Nature 2024

This is the strongest result. In just 71 hours, the Inspiration4 crew lost only ~6 semi-diurnal and ~3 diurnal cycles — but essentially zero lunar or seasonal cycles. Our framework predicts that only high-frequency-coupled pathways should disrupt in such a short window.

Cross-Mission Validation

Pathway	I4 (3 days)	ISS Mice (33 days)	Twins (340 days)
Circadian / Immune	✓ Disrupted	✓✓ Disrupted	✓✓✓ Severe
Telomere length	✗ No change	? Unknown	✓✓✓ Elongated
Epigenetic shifts	~ Mild	✓ Present	✓✓✓ Extensive

Pattern: Disruption severity scales with the number of lost strain cycles at each frequency.

KSC 72h dynamics — 72-hour strain dynamics at Cape Canaveral — what the crew lost

Cross-mission comparison — Frequency-dependent disruption across three missions

Mission window — 3-day mission window in multi-timescale strain space

Experiment 4

Latitude Gradient — Strain & Metabolic Disease

23 countries • IDF / WHO / GLOBOCAN data • earthframe v0.1.0

If Earth's periodic strain dynamics matter for biology, they should matter on Earth too — not just in orbit. Centripetal acceleration varies by 74% from equator to 75°N. Does disease prevalence track this gradient?

Correlations (23 countries)

Diabetes vs strain	r=0.557, p=0.006
Cancer vs strain	r=−0.576, p=0.004
Diabetes (photoperiod removed)	r=0.274, p=0.206
Obesity vs strain	r=−0.152, p=0.489

Honest Assessment

Confounders (GDP, diet, genetics, healthcare) are too strong for causal conclusions at country level. The diabetes signal weakens when photoperiod is controlled.

However: The cancer correlation is intriguing — less periodic strain → more cancer — and aligns with IARC's classification of circadian disruption as a Group 2A carcinogen.

Latitude dynamics — Earth-frame dynamics as a function of latitude

Disease vs strain — Diabetes, obesity, and cancer incidence vs centripetal acceleration

Photoperiod vs strain — Competing explanations: photoperiod vs strain dynamics

Latitude bands — Latitude band comparison: diabetes prevalence & strain dynamics

Methods & Reproducibility

All analyses were performed using the Copernican Toolkit earthframe module (v0.1.0). Epidemiological data from IDF Diabetes Atlas 10th Edition, WHO Global Health Observatory, and GLOBOCAN. Space biology data from NASA GeneLab/OSDR and the SOMA Atlas (Nature 2024).

Analysis code is available in the project repository. All datasets used are publicly accessible.

Reframing Space Biology